A dynamic economic indicator to evaluate SAGD performance

A new approach to predict heavy oil economics as conditions change...

Predicting the economics of heavy oil recovery is complex and results will obviously vary with the dynamics of the project and production performance factors. For example the economics of a SAGD project are directly related to instantaneous steam-oil ratio (SOR), calendar day oil rate (CDOR), ultimate recovery (RF), and project life. Heavy oil price and SOR economic limit are typical "dynamic" factors that impact project economics.

While there is a large body of work on HO economics available for your review, I wanted to share an interesting approach described in SPE 100525-MS. The paper, authored by H. Shin and M. Polikar and presented at the SPE Western Regional meeting in Alaska this last spring, describes a promising new dynamic economic indicator for SAGD projects. The new indicator, called simple thermal efficiency parameter (STEP), is based on the above performance factors and accounts for the dynamics of the economic limit of SOR and heavy oil price. The results were encouraging and showed a good linear relationship between the model and net present value (NPV).

Jorge.